Guerrilla Drafting

               by Jason Pliml

There are different tactical approaches to any battle. With superior forces, storming through the front door is an effective technique. When the combatants are more equally matched, intelligence and preparation are key. However, just having information isn't enough. The application of information is where the tide is turned and victory achieved.

For many years, small guerrilla groups have successfully waged battles against larger enemies based on how they use their superior knowledge of the surroundings and of the tactics used by their opponents. So what can be learned from this approach and how it can be applied to fantasy sports?

It goes without saying that guerrilla groups have an intimate knowledge of their surroundings and territory. In the fantasy world, this equates to understanding every nuance of a league's roster and scoring rules. When joining a new league, read the complete set of scoring rules a minimum of three times on different days. Then, read the rules fully at least once before each subsequent season, paying particularly close attention to changes in league size, roster restrictions, or scoring refinements. Make special note of free agent deadlines, including bidding deadlines and when players come off waivers. The objective is to uncover any angle, however small, that will go unnoticed and unappreciated by rival coaches.

Guerrilla warriors understand how to make the most of seasonal changes. Similarly, everything has a season in fantasy sports. Trading players for other players before the season starts results in the highest cost because everyone is optimistic about their team and expects all of their athletes to trade at a premium. Want to confirm this? Ask every owner to grade their own drafts. How can C be "average" when everyone gives themselves A's and B's? In psychological terms, owners exhibit cognitive dissonance — an innate attempt to rationalize their own selections as good. The prime time to trade for players is midway through the season when owners are woefully aware of their team's inadequacies. Given a set of scoring rules and roster limits, it is very likely that one or more positions will have scarce talent. By purposely drafting depth at scarce positions, other owners will eventually come to their senses and be forced to pay a premium or continue to languish in the league basement.

In leagues that allow trading of future draft picks, trading strategies can be even more lucrative. Early in the season, draft picks have a lower perceived value as everyone wants to compete in the present. For owners that draft depth, particularly at scarce positions, draft picks can be had at a discount. As the season progresses, the perceived value of future draft picks (the value that really matters to a true guerrilla fantasy coach) increases as the trade deadline approaches and bottom dwellers unload their teams for draft picks in search of a better tomorrow. An added benefit of accruing draft picks is that draft picks don't get injured. This is particularly noteworthy in high impact sports like football where significant injuries are the norm.

Continuing with the theme of capitalizing on perception, consider the value of a brand name. When faced with two nearly identical products, consumers consistently pay a premium for the name they recognize. The same psychology underlying branding holds for fantasy leagues. Given relatively equivalent commodities (players) the player with name recognition will normally trade at a premium. The one caveat to drafting name recognition players is that not all name recognition is good. Just as "ValueJet" or "Firestone" conjure images of flaming travel, certain players have established reputations as being disappointments or injury risks. Only draft these much maligned players at a significant discount to projected performance and only then with the intention of keeping them.

In the classic The Art of War by Sun Tzu, special attention is paid to understanding the enemy. Awareness of an enemy's motives, strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies is the next level of knowledge necessary to conquer them. While everyone has relatively equivalent access to general information about players, valuations, and scoring rules, few people have a genuine understanding of their own tendencies. By studying past drafts, it is possible to create a tendency chart for most owners. Begin by listing each coach. Make note of their level of draft preparation (arrives with magazine, has comprehensive draft sheets, etc). Then review past drafts, noting tendencies toward positional preferences, team preferences, and rookie / veteran tendencies. Not only will this information prove valuable during the draft, it will also help throughout the season when considering how to strategically offer trades.

Before delving into the more subversive techniques, a discussion must happen about ethics. Why do ethics matter? Because your team doesn't operate in a vacuum. Slitting just one owner's throat can cause a tremendous backlash that has extremely bad consequences. Since one of the key tenets of Guerrilla Drafting is player movement, avoid causing an incident that limits the pool of trade partners. Examples of these "international incidents" include owning two teams in a league, knowingly trading an injured player without disclosing the injury, paying another owner under the table to approve a lopsided trade, and dumping future draft picks with the intent of dropping out of the league at season end. The isolation resulting from any of these fantasy crimes will not only stifle opportunities in the current and upcoming seasons, but could even lead to banishment from the league.

Now consider the more advanced, and shall we say, more controversial techniques. Where would an article about guerrilla techniques be without mention of several subversive tactics? The first step to becoming an effective league dissident is to start a subtle misinformation campaign. Obviously being subtle is key because any blatant attempts to skew perception within the league will backfire and damage the credibility of the informant. Start small by hyping bad news about a player you want to acquire. A minor ankle injury, cleverly mentioned on the league message board can garner worthwhile trade savings.

If Hollywood Squares has taught us anything, it's the value of using Joan Rivers for the block. Just a shameless plug for Joan's latest skin care product? No. There is a direct correlation in the fantasy world. In leagues with head-to-head matchups, a season can be decided by a single player in a single week. In cases where an otherwise formidable opponent has a weakness, maintaining that advantage is fundamental to the Guerrilla approach. There are two primary methods by which an opponent can strengthen their team: free agency and trade. By beating your opponent to the punch on the free agent wire by adding and dropping a player, it is possible to effectively block a free agent move. Subverting trades requires a bit more tact and also relies on good relations with other owners (remember the speech about not committing heinous fantasy crimes). By letting owners know that you are interested in various players, the likelihood increases that you'll be aware of trade deals before they are finalized. This gives you the opportunity to stall a trade with counter-negotiations or to raise the price the opponent must pay with the intent of forcing the opponent to exchange one weakness for another, rather than strengthening their overall team.

Since fantasy sports is all about improving your squad and winning the league, it is essential to develop effective trade negotiating skills. Overpaying even slightly on a few trades could have a profound effect on the overall quality of a fantasy team. In order to get the best value possible, consider the following negotiation techniques: deferring to a higher authority, the impending deadline, and another owner is interested. In cases where you can pull off the charade, introduce a real or imaginary co-owner that can be the "voice" who says no to a trade. This allows the real owner to play the good cop role and negotiate a sweeter deal. Remember the old car salesman ploy of "I'll have to ask my manager." Why do they use it? Because it works.

Another extremely effective technique for reducing the scrutiny an opposing coach gives to a trade is imposing a deadline. In order for a deadline to be effective, it has to be established so it cannot be changed. For example, "I'm going out of town on Thursday and won't be back before lineups are due." This puts pressure on the other owner to decide quickly or miss out. Letting a deadline slip kills the effectiveness of the technique, so enforce deadlines ruthlessly.

Similar pressure can be applied by implying that another owner is making an offer or is interested in the same player. The pressure to not lose out to another owner can often be even more effective than simply running out of time. In either case, the goal is to put pressure on the other owner to make a decision quickly which will either garner a good deal for you or give you time to pursue a contingent offer elsewhere.

Finally, learn to leverage the league's free agent acquisition system. By strategically posting favorable articles or quotes about a player, it is possible to manipulate the demand for a player upward. This can result in less pressure on the players you want to bid on and will cost the acquiring coach more in a free agent bidding system. Also, don't discount the value of a timely trade offer to distract a coach from a free agent.

Before jumping into Guerrilla Drafting with both feet, be forewarned that not every tactic will be applicable in every league. Leagues with very simple rules require more luck than skill. Leagues full of unprepared, casual owners will succumb to the brutal frontal assault of superior player knowledge. And finally, some tactics may impinge on ethical gray areas. Sometimes friendships are more important than championships — then again, buying a round of beer can cure many ills.