How we calculate our ADP
A quality ADP report must be based on reliable data and should include at a minimum the average overall draft pick for each player and the earliest and latest that player was selected. The best ADP reports will also include other useful information such as trends from earlier to later time periods.
At Mock Draft Central, our goal is to provide the highest quality, most statistically relevant average draft position information possible.
To that end, we follow these guidelines:
- Filter out all keeper drafts
- Filter out short drafts (drafts with less than 144 picks)
- Filter out drafts where computer selections exceed a predefined threshold 1
- Exclude outlier player selections (prevents one or two picks from skewing results)
- Assign a relative penalty to players not selected in a draft 2
- Only include drafts during a narrow time period 3
- Run updates frequently (8 times daily)
- Rather than filtering out individual computer selections, which is statistically invalid, we exclude entire drafts where computer selections exceed the threshold. The threshold varies by number of drafts run during a reporting period. During peak drafting periods the threshold is ratched upward, while during less intense periods, the threshold is relaxed a bit.
- Players not selected in a particular draft are penalized appropriately in their ADP ranking value preventing an incorrect, inflated ADP rating.
- The short time period allows the effects of injuries, trades, demotions appear quickly, rather than being masked by substantial prior draft history.